Conflict and Post Conflict

ICOS works in conflict and post-conflict zones using Cultural Analysis research to examine the perceptions of local people with regards to their own situation or their attitudes towards the political/security landscape in their country. The unique insight provided by this work is used to gain a true understanding of the reality on the ground and to develop realistic and sustainable policy recommendations.

ICOS has been conducting Cultural Analysis research in Afghanistan since 2005, resulting in the publication of over 35 reports on the situation in the country. Much of the research has focused on military-aged males to determine their susceptibility to supporting or joining insurgent groups and provide a longitudinal assessment to evaluate the effects of international military operations. ICOS has also conducted field research on local perceptions of the war in Iraq, and research to assess the impact of the war on terror in fuelling support for insurgent groups in Somalia.


Report

Afghanistan: The Relationship Gap (July 2010)

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Press Release

As the war in Afghanistan enters another summer of increasing violence, the international community is focusing its attention on Kandahar province, the spiritual and political heartland of the Taliban insurgency. At the same time, there is growing pressure for a withdrawal among the public in the member countries of the NATO-ISAF coalition is growing.

To assess the attitude of the Afghan people towards key issues,

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Report Press Releases

61% of Afghans interviewed feel more negative about NATO forces after military offensive in Marjah

3 May 2010

61% of Afghans interviewed feel more negative about NATO forces after military offensive in Marjah

95% believe that more young men have joined the Taliban over the last year

68% believe Taliban will return to Marjah
LONDON – 61% of Afghans interviewed feel more negative about NATO forces after Operation Moshtarak than they did before the February military offensive in Marjah, , according to the results of

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Report

Political Quagmire in Afghanistan (September 2009)

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Press Release

Afghanistan’s election paralysis shows no sign of ending and a constitutional vacuum, possibly lasting months, looms with no functioning government. The presidential election on August 20 was marked by heavy fraud and widespread manipulation. Nearly a month after the first round of voting, the independent Election Complaints Commission – tasked with investigating the irregularities – has ordered a partial recount and audit, of 2500 polling

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Report Press Releases

Afghanistan’s election stalemate shows no sign of abating amid fraud and recount controversy

16 September 2009

Afghanistan’s election stalemate shows no sign of abating amid fraud and recount controversy

Constitutional vacuum looms if impasse is not broken

ICOS proposes formula for interim government in a bid to help country emerge from political quagmire

LONDON AND KABUL – Urgent leadership is required in guiding Afghanistan out of its electoral deadlock, according to an elections update released today by the International Council on Security and

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Report

Afghanistan Election: Guns and Money (August 2009)

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Press Release

AFGHANISTAN ELECTION UPDATE: Afghanistan’s Election: “Clear and Convincing Evidence of Fraud”

Afghanistan’s presidential elections were held on August 20. Since polling day, the Independent Election Commission, an Afghan body, has been counting votes, but is monitored by the Electoral Complaints Commission.

To take the Presidency on the first round a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes cast. On September 8, preliminary results

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Report Press Releases

Afghanistan Elections: First Round of Voting Likely to Produce No Clear Winner, Prompting Run-off

07 August 2009

Afghanistan Elections:

First Round of Voting Likely to Produce No Clear Winner, Prompting Run-off

Lack of Security to Produce Low Turnout of President Karzai’s Voting Base

Large Numbers of Dr. Abdullah’s supporters Will Likely Cast Ballots

Taliban Issues Threats Against Afghans Who Are Marked by Indelible Ink at Polling Centres

ICOS Calls for Immediate Election Contingency Plans to Avoid Political and Ethnic Instability in Wake of Election

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Report

Afghanistan’s Presidential Elections: Power to the People, or the Powerful? (March 2009)

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Press Release

This report examines the key dynamics and personalities at play in the run up to the Afghan presidential election, which will determine the future course of Afghanistan. It details some recommendations for the conduct of the election, and possible scenarios that might shape its outcome.

In February 2008, ICOS released a report called Decision Point 2008. This report listed the names of individuals listed

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